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Frogman Intel Weekly AAR – November 9, 2026

Writer: frogman Tactical
frogman Tactical
3 days ago
21 min read

Report date: Monday, November 9, 2026, 5:00 AM Central Time. Week of Nov 2 – Nov 8, 2026, with the outlook for November 9 to 15. Stock figures are Friday's closes (November 6) plus early Monday futures, oil figures are from Friday's settlement and Monday's open, and gas prices are AAA's Monday reading.


Imminent Actions


This week brings Tuesday's inflation report, a Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday that closes post offices and the Federal Reserve Banks, a late-week storm and cold blast in the East, and continued attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, so the steps below are timed to get your household squared away before Wednesday and before the cold arrives. These recommendations are analysis drawn from the sourced reporting and Supply Watch checks in this AAR.


  • Gas (no rush, fill by Thursday): The national average fell 16 cents in a week to $4.009, and oil posted its steepest weekly drop since the pandemic after Democrats won Congress and President Trump said new strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely" if talks progress. There is no reason to panic-buy fuel, but ships are still being hit near Hormuz, so fill up on your normal schedule and keep every tank above half through the weekend.

  • Food (act by Saturday): Name-brand emergency food got scarcer and pricier this week: Mountain House now shows 82 of 105 products unavailable (73 last week), Legacy's 120-serving bucket and family 72-hour kit sold out, and ReadyWise raised its 170-serving bucket from $299.99 to $349.99 with a late-November ship date. Buy from sellers that still show stock today, such as Valley Food Storage, ReadyWise's 72-hour kit and 52-serving bucket, and 4Patriots' 72-hour and 4-week kits, or simply add a week of canned and dry staples to your regular grocery run.

  • Water (this week): Augason Farms water and its 35-gallon tank are in stock, while 4Patriots' water pouches have now joined Legacy's 3-gallon water on the sold-out list. Get to one gallon per person per day for at least two weeks with store-bought jugs or cases from your local grocery, and fill clean containers at home.

  • Heat and power (before Friday): A developing storm could bring rain, wind, and interior snow to the Northeast Thursday through Saturday, then a cold blast that sends more than 160 million Americans below average by Saturday and may reach the Gulf Coast and Florida by Sunday. Test your heater, change furnace filters, check carbon monoxide detector batteries, and if you use propane, note that the residential price rose 8.9 cents last week, so order before the cold.

  • Medicine (by Tuesday): All post offices close and regular mail stops on Wednesday, November 11, so mail-order prescriptions may arrive a day later. Refill anything due in the next 30 days by Tuesday and restock pain relievers and first aid basics.

  • Cash (by Tuesday): The Federal Reserve Banks are closed for Veterans Day on Wednesday, and many bank branches follow that schedule. Withdraw a few days of spending money in small bills by Tuesday and expect deposits or transfers made Wednesday to post Thursday.

  • Safety (all week): A viral "90-day blackout" claim is driving shelf-clearing in parts of the Southeast, but reporting this week shows it comes from a misread military readiness plan and does not announce any power cutoff for civilians. Prepare calmly, verify claims with official sources before you buy, and treat unexpected texts or emails about elections, banks, or deliveries as possible phishing.

  • Ammo (optional, this week): Bulk .223 rose about 12% at both Lucky Gunner and Ammo.com in one week, and 12-gauge target loads rose 3% to 8%, while bulk 9mm was unchanged at about 23.5 cents a round. If you buy for lawful training or hunting, 9mm is the better value right now, and there is no need to chase rifle ammunition at higher prices.


Bottom Line Up Front


  • Democrats won both chambers of Congress on November 3, with at least a 54-44 Senate majority and a gain of at least 30 House seats, and in Texas Gina Hinojosa defeated Gov. Greg Abbott while James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton for the Senate.

  • Oil had its biggest weekly drop since the pandemic: US crude fell 12.8% to $90.83 and January Brent fell 13.3% to $98.32, and the AAA national average for regular gas fell from $4.169 to $4.009.

  • Stocks had their worst week since April 2025: the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq fell 3.4% into a correction, and the Dow fell 0.9% after a 3% post-election rally and a 4.4% S&P plunge on Thursday led by chip stocks.

  • The October jobs report was strong at 165,000 jobs, well above forecasts of about 59,000 to 65,000, and unemployment dipped to 4.1%, which raised market odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

  • No major post-election strike on Iran occurred, but shipping attacks continue, Hormuz traffic is about 20% of prewar levels, and a third US aircraft carrier is due in the region this week.

  • Emergency food scarcity widened and some prices rose, while water, Valley Food Storage kits, and bulk 9mm remain readily available.


Week in Review


  • Democratic wave: Democrats took the House and Senate in a vote that Reuters and AP tied to frustration over high prices and the Iran war. Reuters reported a Senate majority of at least 54-44 with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled on Wednesday, and Speaker Mike Johnson said he will not lead House Republicans next year. Last week the outcome was the big unknown; it is now settled, and Washington is headed for two years of divided government starting in January.

  • Texas flips: The Texas Tribune reported that Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated three-term Gov. Greg Abbott, becoming the first Democrat elected governor since 1990, and that Democrat James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton for US Senate. Hinojosa has promised to end the school voucher program, regulate data centers, and return $1,500 to each Texas household from the state savings account.

  • Iran war, no new campaign: Last week's reporting warned of strikes right after the vote. Instead, President Trump said Sunday that new attacks are "highly unlikely" if talks progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said a breakthrough is not imminent (Reuters). The US launched Task Force Iron Gate to block Iran's land and Caspian trade routes, and Qatar's prime minister meets President Trump at the White House on Monday (AGBI).

  • Shipping still under fire: The UK maritime monitor confirmed eight attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and three in the Arabian Gulf over the past week, with three vessels sunk, and Lloyd's List data put strait traffic at about 20% of prewar levels (The National). The Houthis claimed an attack that damaged a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh on Sunday.

  • Oil and gas slide: Brent's front-month price fell 17% for the week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the pandemic (CNBC, citing LSEG). Gas is 16 cents cheaper than a week ago and diesel 12 cents cheaper.

  • Market whiplash: The Dow gained 3.03% Wednesday, its best day since April 2025, then the S&P 500 lost 4.36% Thursday as chip stocks had their worst day since March 2020 on fears that the new Congress will slow data center construction (Portfolio Terminal).

  • Strong jobs, sticky inflation: Hiring beat forecasts and earlier months were revised up by 84,000 jobs, but wages rose 3.1% from a year earlier while consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, so paychecks are still losing ground (CNBC, USA Today).


Threat Assessment


The ratings below are analysis based on the sourced reporting in this AAR. Trends compare with last week's report of November 2.


War and Geopolitics: HIGH (unchanged). The feared post-election strike did not happen, and the President's tone softened, but Iran says the strait stays closed until Washington makes concessions, both sides are still hitting ships, a third aircraft carrier is arriving, and the Houthi conflict with Saudi Arabia is widening (The National, Reuters). In Europe, Russia fired 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles at Ukraine on November 7, causing blackouts and water shortages in Kyiv, days before US-led talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday (The Guardian). Analysis: the risk of a sudden escalation is lower than a week ago, but no deal exists.


Energy and Fuel: ELEVATED (down from HIGH). Oil lost 13% to 17% depending on the contract, and gas and diesel fell for a second straight week. JPMorgan says global supply now exceeds demand by about 1.4 million barrels a day (CNBC). Diesel is still $2.44 above a year ago and heating oil $2.51 above, so the cost burden remains. Analysis: prices are easing, but one major ship attack or failed talks could reverse part of that quickly.


Economy, Jobs, and Inflation: ELEVATED (unchanged). Hiring was strong at 165,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 4.1%, but long-term unemployment rose to 1.96 million, the most since December 2021, and wages are trailing inflation (CNBC). The Cleveland Fed's model projects October inflation holding at 3.7% (Yardeni). Analysis: the job market is solid, but the cost-of-living squeeze continues.


Markets and Banking: ELEVATED (unchanged, more volatile). The S&P 500 had its worst week since April 2025, the Nasdaq is in a correction more than 10% below its October 6 record, and the VIX fear gauge rose from 19.42 to 25.64 (Portfolio Terminal). Nvidia fell about 5% before Monday's open after its board opened an investigation into the CEO (CNBC). None of the sources reviewed reported banking-system stress. Analysis: expect more large swings this week around Tuesday's inflation data.


Supply Chain: ELEVATED (unchanged, emergency food tighter). Survival Frog told customers on November 2 that ship times moved to two to three weeks, and TV reporting from Georgia and South Carolina describes carts full of water, dehydrated meals, and batteries driven by a viral blackout rumor (WRDW). Our checks show more emergency food sold out than last week. Analysis: shortages are concentrated in long-shelf-life emergency food, not in everyday groceries.


Grid, Infrastructure, and Cyber: ELEVATED (unchanged). CISA, the FBI, and three other agencies warned on November 5 that hackers are targeting internet-connected refrigeration controllers at grocery and cold-storage sites, which could spoil inventory (CISA). A late-week storm could bring wind and snow to the interior Northeast. Analysis: local outages are possible with the storm, but no reporting supports a widespread or planned blackout.


Civil Unrest: LOW (down from ELEVATED). The Washington Post reported that Election Day unfolded smoothly with only minor hiccups, and Reuters reported that President Trump accepted the results. Analysis: post-election protests have been limited, and the main risk is political tension, not street violence.


Situation


War and Geopolitics


  • Iran talks: President Trump told CNN on Sunday that new attacks are "highly unlikely" if Iran signs "a very strong agreement," but said the US has identified targets, including 38 bridges, if fighting resumes. Secretary of State Rubio called Iran's demands "outrageous" and said a breakthrough is not imminent. Iran's seven demands include sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and war reparations (Reuters).

  • Blockade: The US Air Force disabled a vessel trying to break the blockade in the Gulf of Oman on Saturday, and Iran said tankers hit mines on "unauthorized routes" through the strait. Task Force Iron Gate, based in Tampa, will try to choke off Iran's land and Caspian Sea trade (Reuters, The National).

  • Shipping: Hormuz traffic stands at about 20% of prewar levels. Over the past week, eight attacks in the strait and three in the Arabian Gulf were confirmed, three vessels sank, and five more needed rescue (The National, citing UKMTO and Lloyd's List).

  • Wider war: The Houthis claimed an attack that damaged a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh on Sunday with no casualties, and a drone strike halted Iraq's Khor Mor gas field (AGBI). Iraq reached an understanding with the US to export oil through a lane near Oman (CNBC).

  • US politics and the war: Vice President Vance wrote that "the reason we lost is the war," and President Trump acknowledged the war was part of the reason for the losses (Reuters).

  • Russia and Ukraine: Russia's November 7 strike hit substations in five regions, including one linking two nuclear plants to Kyiv, and closed the city's Northern Bridge. Russian, Ukrainian, and US negotiators meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday (The Guardian).


Stock Market


Weekly moves from the October 30 close to the November 6 close (Portfolio Terminal and CNBC):


  • S&P 500: 7,376.86, down 203.21 points or 2.68%, its worst week since April 2025.

  • Nasdaq Composite: 24,579.43, down 857.57 points or 3.37%, and 10.94% below its record, which counts as a correction.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,285.73, down 484.58 points or 0.94%.

  • Russell 2000 small caps: 2,754.11, down 2.05%.

  • Chip stocks: The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12.15% for the week and 12.25% on Thursday alone.

  • Sectors: Energy fell 12.00% and technology 8.23%, while communication services rose 4.89%.

  • Bonds and safe havens: The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 4.929% to 4.859%, and the SPDR Gold Shares fund rose 4.71%.

  • Fear gauge: The VIX rose from 19.42 to 25.64.

  • Monday morning: S&P 500 futures were up 0.34%, Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.5%, and Dow futures up 0.76%, while Nvidia was down about 5% before the open and bitcoin dipped below $74,000 over the weekend, down from about $78,200 a week ago (CNBC).


Economy and Jobs


  • Jobs report (released Friday, November 6): Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against forecasts of 59,000 (Dow Jones) to 65,000 (Reuters). Unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. September was revised up to 60,000 and August to 186,000 (CNBC, Reuters).

  • Pay: Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month to $38.00, up 3.1% from a year earlier, while consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year through September (USA Today).

  • Weak spots: The broader U-6 underemployment rate rose to 7.9%, the average job search lasted 27.1 weeks, and 1.96 million people have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks (CNBC).

  • Layoffs stay low: Initial jobless claims were 189,000, and the four-week average of 194,750 is the lowest since 1969 (Yardeni Research).

  • Federal Reserve: After the jobs report, futures markets put the odds of a December rate hike at 78%, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed "will have to tighten policy further" (Yardeni Research).

  • New Congress: Democrats take control in January. Before then, the current Republican Congress must pass a measure to fund the government past December (Reuters).


Gas and Energy


  • Gasoline: The AAA national average for regular is $4.009, down from $4.020 yesterday, $4.169 a week ago, and $4.372 a month ago, but up from $3.070 a year ago. That is a weekly drop of 16.0 cents.

  • Diesel: $6.172, down 12.0 cents from $6.292 a week ago and $2.438 above a year ago ($3.735).

  • Texas: EIA's November 2 survey put Texas regular at $3.578 and Houston at $3.625, among the lowest in the country. EIA's next weekly survey is due Tuesday, November 10.

  • Crude oil: December WTI settled Friday at $90.83, down from $104.12 a week earlier (12.76%), and January Brent at $98.32, down from $113.43 (13.32%). At Monday's open, Brent was $97.48 and WTI $90.51 (Portfolio Terminal, CNBC).

  • Natural gas: December Henry Hub futures rose 3.45% for the week to $2.998 per million BTU, snapping a three-week losing streak, but are down 30.52% from a year ago (Dow Jones via Morningstar).

  • Heating oil and propane: Residential heating oil averaged $6.138 a gallon on November 2, down 9.2 cents from the prior week and $2.506 above a year ago. Residential propane averaged $2.820, up 8.9 cents for the week and 37.5 cents from a year ago, and Texas propane was $3.216 (EIA).

  • Weather: The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center expects showers and thunderstorms across Texas and the western Gulf Coast early this week, with a Marginal Risk of excessive rain in southern Texas on Monday, plus rounds of rain and mountain snow for the West Coast.


Analysis


This section is analysis. Last week's biggest fear, a fresh US strike campaign right after the election, did not happen. The election result changed the political math in Washington, and markets responded at once: oil and energy stocks gave back much of their war premium, and the AI and chip stocks that had led the market lost a large share of their gains on fears that the new Congress will slow data center construction. That combination is good news at the pump and bad news for many retirement accounts.


Under the surface, though, the war is not over. The strait is still mostly closed, ships are still being hit, and both Washington and Tehran are still talking past each other on core demands. The likeliest path this week is choppy calm: lower fuel prices, more headlines from Qatar's mediation, and continued incidents at sea. A deal would push oil lower; a major attack would push it back up.


For households, the most useful signal this week is not on the news ticker but on store shelves. A viral blackout rumor is driving some families to clear shelves, and emergency food sellers are selling out and raising prices. The calm, practical answer is the same as always: build two weeks of food and water steadily from sellers and stores that have stock, rather than paying rumor-inflated prices.


Impact to the US Economy


  • Inflation and the Fed: Falling oil will ease energy inflation in coming months, but strong hiring and 3.7% inflation leave the Fed leaning toward a December hike, which would keep borrowing costs high. Analysis.

  • Consumer spending: Cheaper gas puts a little money back in wallets before the holidays, but wages rising 3.1% against 3.7% inflation means real pay is still shrinking.

  • Business costs: Diesel near $6.17 and a 16.0% yearly jump in transportation and warehousing prices in September's producer price data keep freight costs high (Yardeni Research).

  • Energy sector: Energy stocks fell 12% for the week, and lower prices may slow drilling plans, which matters for Texas jobs. Analysis.

  • Tech and data centers: Voters rejected data center projects in 40 of 41 local ballot measures, according to CNBC's count cited by Portfolio Terminal, and the new Texas governor has promised to regulate them, which could slow one of the biggest sources of construction spending. Analysis.

  • Policy outlook: Divided government from January makes major new spending or tax changes less likely and raises the odds of standoffs over funding and the war. Analysis.

  • Recession risk: Hiring and low layoffs argue against a near-term recession; the bigger risk is a slow squeeze on household budgets. Analysis.


Impact to US Households


  • Filling a 15-gallon tank now costs about $60.14, about $2.40 less than last week but about $14 more than a year ago.

  • Homes heated with oil still pay about $2.50 a gallon more than last year, and propane users face rising prices as the cold arrives, so lock in a delivery before Friday's cold air.

  • Retirement accounts with heavy tech exposure fell several percent this week. Avoid panic selling; this is a time to review your plan, not react to headlines. Analysis, not investment advice.

  • Texans should expect state policy changes after January, including on school vouchers and data centers, and possible property tax and rebate debates in the 2027 legislative session.

  • Families who want an emergency food kit should buy from in-stock sellers now, compare prices, and skip sellers whose prices jumped this week.

  • Mail, Federal Reserve Bank operations, and many bank branches pause Wednesday for Veterans Day, so plan bill payments and deposits around it.


Supply Watch


Prices and stock status were checked between 4:55 and 5:05 AM Central on Monday, November 9, unless noted. Store prices vary by location, and online status can change within hours.


Walmart



H-E-B



Emergency Food and Water Brands



Store-wide counts this morning: Mountain House shows 82 of 105 products unavailable (73 last week). Legacy shows 89 of 108 unavailable (75 of 113 last week). 4Patriots shows 57 of 225 unavailable (30 of 220 last week). ReadyWise shows 93 of 290 unavailable (99 of 296 last week). Valley shows 107 of 111 available, the same as last week, and all 32 Augason Farms products listed online are available.


Costco (warehouse stock trackers)



Ammunition (price per round)



Supply News


  • Rumor-driven buying: WRDW-TV reported on November 7 that viral posts about a "90-day nationwide blackout" are sending shoppers in Georgia and South Carolina out with carts of water, dehydrated meals, and batteries, and a South Carolina tactical shop owner estimated sales up 60% to 70%. The station reported that the claim stems from a misunderstanding of the Pentagon's FORTRESS America readiness plan, which requires military units to be able to operate for 90 days if the grid is hit, and that it does not announce or authorize any blackout.

  • Shipping delays: Survival Frog told customers on November 2 that demand for long-shelf-life food "jumped way past what we planned for" and that ship times moved to two to three weeks.

  • Cold-chain cyber warning: Federal agencies warned grocery and cold-storage operators on November 5 to take refrigeration controllers off the internet after hackers targeted them (CISA).

  • Groceries: No source reviewed this week reported widespread empty grocery shelves in the US. Shortages remain concentrated in name-brand freeze-dried emergency food and Costco's emergency buckets.


Supply Summary


  • Available: Valley Food Storage kits, ReadyWise 72-hour kit, 52-serving bucket and 1-month supply, 4Patriots 72-hour and 4-week kits, all Augason Farms products online including water and tanks, Mountain House Build Your Own kits, and bulk 9mm, .223, and 12-gauge ammunition.

  • Scarce or sold out: Mountain House pre-built kits and buckets, Legacy's 120-serving bucket, family 72-hour kit and water, ReadyWise 2-week supply, 4Patriots 3-month kit and water pouches, Costco's Mountain House and Augason Farms buckets, and Lucky Gunner's Global Ordnance 5.56.

  • Price moves since last week: ReadyWise's 170-serving bucket rose $50 (17%), its 1-month supply rose $30 (10%), and its sold-out 2-week supply now lists $20 higher. Bulk .223 rose about $55 (12%) at both Lucky Gunner and Ammo.com, and 12-gauge target loads rose $3 to $7. Bulk 9mm and all Valley, 4Patriots, and Augason prices were unchanged.

  • Best places for food now: Valley Food Storage online for full kits, ReadyWise and 4Patriots for 72-hour and 4-week kits, and canned and dry staples at your regular grocery store, which remain the cheapest and most reliable option.

  • Best places for water now: Your local grocery or big-box store for cases and jugs, and Augason Farms for its 12-pack and 35-gallon tank.


Preparedness Actions


Water


  • Store at least one gallon per person per day, and aim for two weeks at home (Ready.gov, Red Cross).

  • If you must treat water, use 1/8 teaspoon of plain, unscented household bleach per gallon and let it stand 30 minutes, or bring it to a rolling boil for one full minute (Ready.gov).

  • Fill and date clean food-grade containers at home now, which costs almost nothing and avoids rumor-driven store runs.


Food and Deep Pantry


  • Build a two-week home supply of foods your family already eats, and keep a three-day supply in your go-bag (Red Cross).

  • Favor foods that need no cooking, such as canned meats, peanut butter, crackers, and shelf-stable milk, in case winter storms cut power.

  • Compare price per serving before buying a kit, and skip sellers that raised prices this week when grocery staples cost less.

  • Keep refrigerator and freezer doors closed during an outage; a full freezer holds temperature longer.


Medical


  • Keep a 7-day supply of medications in your kit (Red Cross), and refill any 30-day prescription by Tuesday, before the Wednesday mail holiday.

  • Restock a first aid kit, pain relievers, cold medicine, and batteries for hearing aids or medical devices as flu and cold season begins.


Firearms and Ammunition


  • Owning firearms is a lawful choice and a personal responsibility. Know and follow your state and local laws. As of October 9, 2026, federal Form 1 approval is no longer required for individuals making suppressors or short-barreled rifles, but state law still applies.

  • Store firearms unloaded and locked, with ammunition stored separately, especially in homes with children (NSSF Project ChildSafe).

  • Keep ammunition cool and dry, away from heat and flame, and in its original packaging (SAAMI).

  • A practical amount is enough for regular training plus a reserve, not a hoard. Buy on price and need, not on rumor, and take a class if you are new.


Power and Heat


  • Never use a generator indoors or in a garage, and run it more than 20 feet from windows, doors, and vents (CDC).

  • Keep battery-backed carbon monoxide detectors near every sleeping area, and never heat your home with a gas oven or grill (CDC).

  • Service your furnace, replace filters, and have blankets ready for Friday's colder air in the East and possible cold reaching the Gulf Coast by Sunday.

  • If you heat with propane or oil, order a delivery now, before demand rises with the cold.


Fuel


  • Fill vehicles on your normal schedule this week while prices are falling, and keep tanks above half.

  • Store gasoline only in approved containers, away from the house, and rotate it regularly.


Money and Cash


  • Keep several days of spending money in small bills at home, and withdraw it by Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's bank holiday.

  • Budget for higher heating bills this winter, and avoid new variable-rate debt while the Fed leans toward raising rates.

  • Avoid panic moves in retirement accounts after a volatile week; talk to a trusted advisor if your plan needs adjusting.


Communications, Documents, and Go-Bag


  • Keep a battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA weather radio and turn on wireless emergency alerts before this week's storms (Ready.gov).

  • Check claims you see on social media against official sources, such as Ready.gov, your utility, and your local emergency management office, before acting on them.

  • Store copies of IDs, insurance policies, and medication lists in a waterproof bag, and pack a go-bag with water, food, a flashlight, a first aid kit, cash, and a map for each person.


Home Security and Community


  • Check on elderly and veteran neighbors this Veterans Day week, especially those living alone before the cold arrives.

  • Secure outdoor items before gusty winds, and keep walkways clear of ice where snow falls.

  • Share calm, verified information with friends and family who are worried by blackout rumors, and report suspicious activity to local police.


Week Ahead


  • Monday, November 9: Stock futures are higher, Nvidia is under pressure after its board opened an investigation into its CEO, and Qatar's prime minister meets President Trump at the White House on Iran mediation. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across Texas, with a Marginal Risk of excessive rain in southern Texas.

  • Tuesday, November 10: The October Consumer Price Index comes out at 8:30 AM Eastern (7:30 AM Central). EIA updates weekly gas and diesel prices. Russian, Ukrainian, and US negotiators begin two days of talks in Abu Dhabi. This is the last full banking and mail day before the holiday.

  • Wednesday, November 11, Veterans Day: All post offices are closed with no regular mail delivery, and the Federal Reserve Banks are closed, and many bank branches typically close as well. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open. EIA's weekly heating oil and propane update is delayed one day. A low-pressure system begins organizing over the Ohio Valley late in the day.

  • Thursday, November 12: Mail service resumes. Weekly jobless claims are released, and the storm moves toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with mostly rain.

  • Friday, November 13: The October Producer Price Index comes out at 8:30 AM Eastern. Colder air arrives in the East, with snow most likely in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

  • Saturday, November 14: The storm pulls away toward Canada, with lingering snow showers in the Appalachians and highs in the 30s for more than 110 million people in the Northeast.

  • Sunday, November 15: The cold may reach the Gulf Coast and Florida, while the West stays 10 to 20 degrees above average.

  • Also this week: Ten Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, the USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected to arrive as the third US carrier in the Middle East, and earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will test the AI trade.


Outlook (analysis): If talks continue and no major ship attack occurs, gas should keep drifting toward $3.95 to $4.00 this week. A hotter-than-expected inflation report on Tuesday would likely raise rate-hike odds and pressure stocks, and the late-week cold will lift heating demand in the East. The biggest wildcard remains the Strait of Hormuz.


Priority This Week


  1. Refill prescriptions and withdraw a few days of cash by Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday's Veterans Day closures.

  2. Prepare for the cold by Friday: service heaters, test carbon monoxide detectors, and order propane or heating oil.

  3. Finish two weeks of water and food steadily, buying from in-stock sellers and grocery stores rather than paying rumor-inflated prices.

  4. Fill vehicles on your normal schedule while prices fall, and keep tanks above half.

  5. Watch Tuesday's inflation report and the Iran talks, and verify any blackout or shortage claims before you act.


Sources


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